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2018 Hurricane Names

Hurricane.com - tracking the Tropics since 1994.

"Run from the water; hide from the wind."
The Atlantic Hurricane season started on June 1.
The Pacific Hurricane season started on May 15.

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Caribbean, Gulf, Florida, Eastern US hurricane radar and satellite views

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Full Disk hurricane radar and satellite views

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Hawaii / Pacific hurricane radar and satellite views

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Hurricane Maps and Hurricane Projections
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Hurricane & Tropical Storm Recent Headlines

(For our full hurricane and tropical storm news coverage view our hurricane news page.)
Join our Hurricane Forums to discuss the season and storms.

Atlantic Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information (Eastern Pacific below)


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NHC Atlantic
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Hurley T 0 Flow Shirt FIT Dri 2 rOHXrSwqBActive tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
072
ABNT20 KNHC 070512
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 7 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, located over the central Atlantic Ocean. The Weather
Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression
Gordon, located over Arkansas.

Society Bias Bias Bias Society Henley Henley Henley Bias Society Society HawqBxTwR Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure centered about 500 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands has
become a little more concentrated over the past couple of hours, but
recent satellite data show that this system is still fairly broad
and elongated. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within
the next day or so while the system moves slowly westward across the
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a
tropical wave and accompanying low pressure system near the west
coast of Africa. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely
to form later today or over the weekend while the wave moves
westward or west-northwestward over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor
the progress of this system, and advisories on a potential tropical
cyclone or tropical depression could be issued later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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Selling Gap Casual Dress Dress Gap Selling Dress Selling Casual Gap Selling Casual Gap rr1faw- ...FLORENCE WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE BUT STILL EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 7 the center of Florence was located near 25.1, -50.7 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm Florence Public Advisory Number 32-Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

520 
WTNT31 KNHC 070849
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
500 AM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

...FLORENCE WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE BUT STILL EXPECTED TO
RESTRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 50.7W
ABOUT 925 MI...1490 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 985 MI...1590 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 50.7 West. Florence is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion
will likely continue for the next couple of days.  A turn toward
the west-northwest is expected by the end of the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Little change in intensity is expected today.
However, Florence is forecast to restrengthen and become a hurricane
again over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Florence will begin to affect Bermuda
later today and will reach portions of the U.S. East Coast over the
weekend.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky




Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Advisory Number 32-Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018
348 
WTNT21 KNHC 070848
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062018
0900 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N  50.7W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE  50SE  30SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N  50.7W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N  50.4W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.1N  51.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  50SE  30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.0N  53.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  70SE  50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 25.0N  54.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 25.1N  55.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 26.2N  58.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 27.5N  63.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 30.0N  70.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N  50.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY





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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Discussion Number 32-Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 07 2018
805 
WTNT41 KNHC 070850
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
500 AM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

Florence's structure continues to be negatively affected by strong
southwesterly shear.  Cloud tops have generally warmed over the
past 6 hours, and recent microwave data show that the low-level
circulation center of Florence is displaced nearly 20 nmi to the
southwest of the mid-level center.  Satellite intensity estimates
have decreased since last night, and now support an initial
intensity of 55 kt.

Based on GFS and ECMWF SHIPS diagnostic output, the southwesterly
shear is near its peak now, and should gradually decrease over the
next 24 to 36 h.  All of the intensity guidance shows little change
in intensity through that time. From 48 h onward, a low shear/warm
SST environment should allow the tropical storm to re-strengthen.
However, the extent and timing of the strengthening varies greatly
from model to model, with the dynamical models generally showing
more intensification, and sooner, than the statistical models.  As
has been the case for most of Florence's existence thus far,
confidence in the intensity forecast, especially beyond 36 h, is
low.  The new official forecast is a little lower than the previous
advisory for the first 48 h, but close to it after that, and lies
between the more aggressive HCCA and less aggressive IVCN consensus
aids.

Nighttime Proxy-Vis and earlier microwave imagery indicate that
Florence has turned westward, with an estimated initial motion of
275/6 kt. Most of the track guidance has shifted slightly toward the
southwest, so the NHC track forecast has also been nudged in that
direction.  Over the next 3 days of the forecast, Florence should be
steered generally westward, and then west-northwestward, by a
mid-level ridge to its north.  By days 4 and 5, a developing
mid-latitude trough could create a weakness in this ridge and allow
Florence to move more toward the northwest, but there is still
considerable uncertainty in the global models and their ensembles
regarding the strength of the ridge and if the aforementioned trough
will have any notable impact on the track of Florence.  The NHC
forecast follows HCCA very closely, and is also near the middle of
the large combined envelope of the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF ensembles.

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells will begin
to affect Bermuda later today and portions of the U.S. East Coast
this weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.

2. There is still very large uncertainty in Florence's track
beyond day 5, and it is too soon to determine what, if any, other
impacts Florence could have on the U.S. East Coast next week.

3. Since we are near the peak of hurricane season, this is a good
time for everyone who lives in a hurricane-prone area to ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 25.1N  50.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 25.1N  51.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 25.0N  53.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 25.0N  54.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 25.1N  55.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  10/0600Z 26.2N  58.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  11/0600Z 27.5N  63.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  12/0600Z 30.0N  70.0W  110 KT 125 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky




Tropical Storm Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32-Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018
225 
FONT11 KNHC 070849
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  32         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062018               
0900 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  17(28)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ZELINSKY                                                 



Tropical Storm Florence Graphics-
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 07 Sep 2018 08:52:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 07 Sep 2018 09:22:08 GMT

Tropical Depression Gordon Public Advisory Number 20-The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Sep 07 2018


Hurricane Advisory 1
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Hurricane Advisory 3
Hurricane Advisory 4
Hurricane Advisory 5

Wool Skirt Boutique Wool Wool Boutique Boutique Skirt Pacific Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
656
ABPZ20 KNHC 070540
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
BKE BKE Hooded Sweater Manito Manito OAq15z 1100 PM PDT Thu Sep 6 2018
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For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Olivia, located a little more than 1300 miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

The broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south
of the southern tip of Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. However,
environmental conditions are expected be conducive for development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early
next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward away from
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



Summary for Hurricane Olivia (EP2/EP172018)- ...OLIVIA BEGINNING A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Sep 7 the center of Olivia was located near 19.6, -131.2 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

Hurricane Olivia Public Advisory Number 27-Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 07 2018
441 
WTPZ32 KNHC 070848
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Olivia Advisory Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 07 2018

...OLIVIA BEGINNING A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 131.2W
ABOUT 1555 MI...2500 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1730 MI...2785 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olivia was located
near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 131.2 West. Olivia is moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is forecast to continue through Saturday.  A gradual turn
toward the west is expected Saturday night or Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Olivia is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A slow weakening trend is
expected through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



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Hurricane Olivia Forecast Advisory Number 27-Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018
780 
WTPZ22 KNHC 070847
TCMEP2
 
HURRICANE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172018
0900 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 131.2W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 131.2W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 130.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.2N 133.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.9N 135.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.4N 138.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.7N 140.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.0N 145.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 21.9N 149.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 21.0N 153.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 131.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 



Hurricane Olivia Forecast Discussion Number 27-Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 07 2018
934 
WTPZ42 KNHC 070903 CCA
TCDEP2

Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number  27...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 07 2018

Corrected second paragraph about previous category-4 strength

Olivia's overall cloud structure in infrared and passive microwave
satellite imagery has changed little since the previous advisory,
except that the cloud tops have warmed significantly around the
well-defined, 20-nmi-diameter eye. As a result, both subjective and
objective intensity estimates have decreased markedly since Olivia
briefly gained category-4 strength on the previous advisory.
However, microwave imagery indicates that Olivia has evolved into an
annular hurricane, with only inner-core convection present and no
banding features. As a result, the initial intensity only been
decreased to 110 kt, which is a typical slower rate of weakening for
annular hurricanes.

The initial motion estimate is 290/13 kt. There is no significant
change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Olivia is
expected to continue moving west-northwestward for the next 24-36
hours, followed by a westward motion as the hurricane nudges up
against a strong deep-layer subtropical ridge that stretches from
Mexico and the southwestern U.S. westward into the central Pacific.
The new NHC forecast track is essentially just an extension of the
previous advisory track and is down the middle of the very tightly
packed model guidance, closest to the speed of the TVCN consensus
track model.

As mentioned in the previous advisory discussion, the current
annular pattern indicates that Hurricane Olivia should weaken more
slowly than indicated by guidance, even though the cyclone will be
moving over slightly cooler SSTS of about 25.5 deg C by 36 h. The
low shear environment that the cyclone will be embedded in should
help to offset some of the negative effects of the cooler waters.
After that time, Olivia will move back over slightly warmer
waters and remain in a low shear environment, so a little leveling
off in the weakening process is forecast until 96 hours. On day 5,
however, southwesterly vertical wind shear of 15-20 kt is expected
to induce more significant weakening at that time. The official
intensity forecast is similar to, but higher than, the consensus
models, and more closely follows a blend of the dynamical models
HWRF and HMON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 19.6N 131.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 20.2N 133.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 20.9N 135.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 21.4N 138.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 21.7N 140.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  10/0600Z 22.0N 145.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  11/0600Z 21.9N 149.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  12/0600Z 21.0N 153.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart




Hurricane Olivia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27-Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018
452 
FOPZ12 KNHC 070848
PWSEP2
                                                                    
HURRICANE OLIVIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  27                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172018               
0900 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLIVIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 130W       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
20N 135W       34 12  83(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
20N 135W       50  1  45(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
20N 135W       64  X  16(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
25N 135W       34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
20N 140W       34  X   2( 2)  19(21)  28(49)   2(51)   X(51)   X(51)
20N 140W       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
20N 140W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
25N 140W       34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  29(33)   4(37)   X(37)
20N 145W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
20N 145W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
25N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)   2(20)   X(20)
 
20N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  21(23)   9(32)
20N 150W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)
20N 150W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
25N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   3(17)
25N 150W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
20N 151W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)  15(31)
20N 151W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)
20N 151W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BUOY 51004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
 
20N 154W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  19(22)
20N 154W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
BRADSHAW AAF   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
18N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
21N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)
 
KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
21N 158W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
HANA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)
 
LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  



Hurricane Olivia Graphics-
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 07 Sep 2018 09:05:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 07 Sep 2018 09:40:35 GMT
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CPHC Central Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific

Boutique Casual Skirt Skirt Casual Skirt Boutique Casual Boutique FWWg6rac-
ACPN50 PHFO 070549
TWOCP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 PM HST Thu Sep 6 2018
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For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center is issuing advisories
on Hurricane Norman, centered about 280 miles northeast of
Hilo, Hawaii.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on
Hurricane Olivia, centered about 1600 miles east of Hilo,
Hawaii. Olivia is forecast to move into the Central Pacific
basin later Saturday.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next
5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Hurricane Norman are issued under WMO
header WTPZ34 PHFO and under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Hurricane Norman are issued under
WMO header WTPZ24 PHFO and under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP4.

Public Advisories on Hurricane Olivia are issued under WMO
header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Hurricane Olivia are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.
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$$
Forecaster Wroe


Summary for Hurricane Norman (CP4/EP162018)-...WEAKENING HURRICANE NORMAN NORTHEAST OF HAWAII CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWEST... As of 11:00 PM HST Thu Sep 6 the center of Norman was located near 22.5N 151.7W with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Hurricane Norman Public Advisory Number 41-Issued at 1100 PM HST Thu Sep 06 2018
WTPA34 PHFO 070851
TCPCP4
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Norman Advisory Number  41
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP162018
1100 PM HST Thu Sep 06 2018
 
...WEAKENING HURRICANE NORMAN NORTHEAST OF HAWAII CONTINUES
MOVING NORTHWEST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 151.7W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM NE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM ENE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norman was
located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 151.7 West. Norman is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through Saturday, remaining east of the main
Hawaiian Islands.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Weakening is forecast through Saturday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  A large swell generated by Norman will peak across the
main Hawaiian Islands tonight, causing large and potentially
dangerous surf along east facing shores. The surf will diminish on
Friday. See the High Surf Warning from the National Weather Service
in Honolulu for more details.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Powell
 


Hurricane Norman Forecast/Advisory Number 41-Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018
WTPA24 PHFO 070850
TCMCP4
 
HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  41
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP162018
0900 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 151.7W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  35SW  50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..190NE 130SE 180SW 220NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 151.7W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 151.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.3N 152.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.4N 153.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 25.5N 154.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.5N 155.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 28.5N 157.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 30.5N 158.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 32.5N 160.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 151.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER POWELL
 
 


Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 41-Issued at 1100 PM HST Thu Sep 06 2018
WTPA44 PHFO 070849
TCDCP4
 
Hurricane Norman Discussion Number  41
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP162018
1100 PM HST Thu Sep 06 2018
 
Norman's satellite presentation certainly has not improved since 
this afternoon, with deep convection continuing to shear northward 
away from the low level circulation center (LLCC). No eye is noted 
in infrared imagery and animation is not very helpful in locating 
the center. With 30 to 40 kt of vertical shear continuing across 
Norman and tilting its core this evening, we relied on timely 0341 
UTC and 0431 UTC SSMIS imagery to track the LLCC. Subjective Dvorak 
current intensity estimates were 4.5/77 kt from all three analysis 
centers, and ADT from UW-CIMSS was 66 kt. Given the continued 
apparent deterioration of this system, an initial intensity of 75
kt seems reasonable for this advisory. 

We rebested the 0000 UTC Norman position slightly to the left and 
slower to more align it with later SSMIS imagery. With this 
adjustment, the initial motion estimate for this advisory is a more 
northerly 325/7 kt. Norman is moving northwestward along the
western flank of a ridge and into an upper trough to its north.
Track guidance is tight through 48 hours, then pretty much all over
the map afterwards as each model handles a shear-decapitated Norman 
differently. We maintained a forecast track in the middle of the 
envelope, along ECMWF through 24 hours, then along TVCE consensus 
from 36 through 72 hours. The forecast track was tapped slightly to 
the right through 72 hours to account for the more northerly
initial motion, with the current track almost on top of the previous
one at 96 and 120 hours.

Norman will continue to experience very strong shear through 72
hours. This will weaken the tropical cyclone rather rapidly,
particularly in light of the cooler sea surface temperatures ahead.
Norman is expected to become a remnant low in 3 days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0900Z 22.5N 151.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 23.3N 152.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 24.4N 153.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 25.5N 154.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 26.5N 155.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  10/0600Z 28.5N 157.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  11/0600Z 30.5N 158.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  12/0600Z 32.5N 160.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Powell
 


Hurricane Norman Wind speed probabilities Number 41 -Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018
FOPA14 PHFO 070852
PWSCP4
                                                                    
HURRICANE NORMAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  41                
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP162018         
0900 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 151.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
25N 150W       34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
26N 159W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
30N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER POWELL                                                   

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